The 2010 Pan Pacific games raised several significant questions, but also punctuated a number of pertinent performances. One of the larger and more obvious comments that we have heard is the level of conditioning (both mental and physical) of the phenom that is Michael Phelps; was he ready to compete for this meet? Then there is the bold exclamation point that Ryan Lochte placed on all of his swims throughout the meet. And, finally, there is the question of Tyler Clary and where he will be in two years if he is contending with the best at this stage in his young career. So, I pose to you this highly debatable question:
Who wins the 400 IM in the 2012 Olympic trials: Lochte, Clary, or Phelps?
Does history repeat itself? In 2008, Phelps broke his own World Record and dominated his competition in the 400 IM. Phelps lived for the race and displayed a superman-like demonstration that saw him as tireless throughout the entire swim. His underwater work was the best that anyone had ever seen, and he was extraordinarily detailed in every aspect of the event. However, since that point we have yet to see the same level of performance from the 16-time Olympics medalist. Is his age starting to overcome his ability, or will he be back in his Olympic form in 2012?
Lochte has consistently improved since 2008 with an emphasis on his backstroke, breaststroke, and his underwater work. The bottom line: Ryan Lochte is the best swimmer today. Will he, however, be the best swimmer in 2012 at the trials? If Lochte continues his current streak of improvement, there is no doubt in my mind that he will excel in the 400 IM as well as a slew of other events, but I just don’t know if it will be enough to take home the gold. So, the question now stands: can Lochte maintain his improvements throughout the next two years, or will he hit a plateau in his training during that time?
Tyler Clary has clearly demonstrated that he has the talent and desire to compete with the big dawgs, and that is precisely what he will be doing as he declared that he will not be participating in his senior year at Michigan. Clary has shown a vast improvement since the 2010 NCAA Championships. Along with that, if you take a sampling of swimmers that have declared their “pro status”, they typically show a significant (and immediate) improvement. Will Clary show similar improvements and be able to dominate two Olympic veterans of the 400 IM?
Here is the color commentary of what will go down (according to the crystal ball that I bought at the dollar store):
- In one of the quietest moments so far in the meet, the swimmers step onto the starting blocks. The official holds them a bit longer than the previous event in hopes of prolonging the inevitable. Lochte and Phelps take off with uncanny reaction times with Clary not far off of their mark. Both Lochte and Phelps hit their underwaters a little harder and come up together just ahead of Clary. Phelps hits the 50M turn first with Lochte trailing by .15 and Clary behind by .27. Phelps increases his lead in the back half of the fly. He starts to pull ahead even more during the back half and hits the 100M turn .31 ahead of Lochte and .52 in front of Clary.
- All three swimmers have pristine turns going into the backstroke, but Lochte works his underwater a little harder which initiates a first move at the lead. Clary and Lochte both push the first half of the back to decrease Phelps’ lead by the 150M mark. Phelps maintains a lead of .24 on Lochte, but Clary decreases Phelps’ lead to .43. As Lochte and Phelps come off the turn, Lochte is now even with Phelps with Clary clearly putting in the effort to catch up. Heading toward the 200M turn, Lochte and Phelps are still battling for first as Clary takes the lead down to .36.
- The crowd really starts getting into the race as the noise becomes a bit deafening. The breaststroke is what makes or breaks an IM, and Clary has definitively improved as he continues his tracking of Lochte and Phelps. Lochte finally takes the lead at the 250M turn with Phelps just behind by .15 and Clary now only down by .20. On the back end of the breaststroke, Phelps starts to kick it in a little more to hold off Clary, but the swimmers even out heading into the 300M mark. At the turn, Lochte is merely ahead of the two swimmers by .07 with Phelps and Clary dead even.
- The crowd erupts as all three hit the wall going into the freestyle. All three have outstanding underwaters. Clary starts to turn it on just before the turn as he levels the playing field with Lochte. Phelps also hits his last turn with vengeance and all three are dead even at the 350M turn. It’s a mad dash to the finish. Who will take it? Whose will is tough enough to finish in first? Who has it in them to take home the win? Is it Phelps? Is it Lochte? Is it Clary?
Only time will tell!
But, until then, what are your thoughts on the potential race of the 2012 trials?
Great article. The men’s 400 IM is no longer Phelps’ to lose. If he chooses to go after it, we will be treated to one of the great races of all time. One point, though. The race described here would not take place at the 2012 games but, rather, at the 2012 US trials…
That is a very good point, and one that I absolutely overlooked with regard to this race being in the trials and not the games. Thanks for the comment!
*Edit made from Olympics games to Olympic trials thanks to Prairie’s comment*
Excellent, Andy. Great read.
Right you are Prairie about Trials. It’s sort of like at Pan-Pacs—the Trials will be a better race than the finals, because only 2 from each country can go!
Wonder if there’s the possibility of Phelps “taking one for the team” (in that he doesn’t want to swim the 400 IM, so he could try to justify it as a team-attitude), and skip the 400 IM so Clary gets in (and so he doesn’t have to train for it.) At the end of the day, his desires have to win out over Bowman’s right?
Like it was in 2008, this should be one of the races of the Trials. (As a point of interest, it is also the very first final.) I would expect the race to not be as close as you suggest early on. For example, I would put Phelps about half a second ahead of Clary on fly, with Lochte third. If he is gonna win, Clary needs to have a lead at the halfway point, since Phelps and Lochte are much better breaststrokers and freestylers. If Clary has enough in the tank to put half a second on the other two after backstroke and still keep it cranking on the back half (i.e., not die like he did at Nationals), he could win it. I don’t know how Clary will progress the next few years, especially compared to Phelps and Lochte, but I have a feeling the upward spiral will continue. Phelps will be a wildcard in this one – no one will know if he will actually be in it to win it for quite some time (though if he doesn’t swim it regularly, we will know he’s not). One historical point, this is his first shot at the three-peat on the Olympic program. Michael Phelps loves making history, and before he would have another chance (200 IM or either butterfly), Kitajima and Peirsol would both have shots. Might be a bit of added motivation to take on the 400 IM, despite it potentially costing Lochte and/or Clary.
Good grab with it being the first event of the meet, David. That will certainly change the outlook on it. I think if that would make him the FIRST (rather than the first in a decade) to do it, that might be a huge motivation. As it is, I think he’s already deadset on not wanting to swim it, and I’m not sure anyone’s going to change his mind.
Here’s my ending: Clary fades slightly on the last 50, after taking the front half out so hard, and touches in a 4:06.13. Phelps decides he’s not going to finish the race, and hopes out before completing the last turn. And Lochte turns on the burners and scorches to the finish going a new textile WR of 4:05.15, the second fastest performance in history.
I think Clary will have his strategy, speed, and endurance all in line by then. He had a rough NCAA season and switched training sites mid-season, etc. I think with two good years at FAST, he will be more than ready to take on Lochte by 2012. Despite his rough winter, he came back and went 4:09 twice at Pan Pacs, just two seconds off his time from last year. And he realistically expects to be 4:05-4:06 by next year.
Now I’ll contradict myself and say how Phelps (we’ll see) and Lochte will be so ready for this race in 2012. It will be fast and tight. Just because I say that, it will probably be a blow-out for someone but not very fast. No one’s got a clue! Someone else will probably end up winning (which, at this point, I cannot imagine… those three are way out there).