Race By Race – Break it Down for the NCAA’s (women)

In our preview of the women NCAA’s we took a look at the potential rankings and scores for the teams.  While this sparked a lot of debate between our readers (and me), I want to continue the talk with an in-depth look at each race.

200 Free Relay

In what will most likely be the closest relay throughout the meet, Stanford goes into this event seeded first with a close second and third between Cal and Florida.  Seeded fourth is Wisonsin, then Auburn, and finally Georgia to round out the top 6 seeds.  I know that Georgia isn’t a front runner for the sprint events, but I cannot see them finishing lower than 5th.  So, here are my top 6 for this event:

1. Stanford
2. Georgia
3. Florida
4. Cal
5. Auburn
6. Wisconsin

500 Freestyle

This is one of those events that is truly up in the air.  You have Wendy Trott (Georgia) seeded first followed closely by Kristen Heiss (A&M), and she is followed closely as well by Allison Schmitt (Georgia).  Those three will absolutely be in the top rankings, but how will they finish?  Here are my predictions:

1. Wendy Trott
2. Allison Schmitt
3. Kristen Heiss
4. Chelsea Nauta (Georgia)
5. Lauren Boyle (Cal)
6. Alicia Aemisegger (Princeton)

200 IM

Julia Smit (Stanford) will undoubtedly take this event along with breaking the NCAA meet record for the event (which was set by her last year) as well as the NCAA record for the event (which, again, she set this year in late February)!  With her win pretty well established, who is going to take the other top spots?

1. Julia Smit
2. Kathleen Hersey (Texas)
3. Gemma Spofforth (Florida)
4. Morgan Scroggy (Georgia)
5. Julia Wilkinson (A&M)
6. Elaine Breeden (Stanford)

50 Freestyle

There is no doubt in my mind that this will be a great battle for first place!  Elizabeth Webb (Stanford) is seeded first at 22.04, Michele King (Tennessee) in second at 22.06, Liv Jensen (Cal) in third at 22.09, Presley Bard (So Cal) in fourth at 22.15, and Anne-Marie Botex in fifth at 22.16!  Talk about a close field.  But, the battle doesn’t end there because the rest of the swimmers are just as closely packed into the seeding!  So, who will take home the victory?

1. Elizabeth Webb
2. Liv Jensen
3. Michele King
4. Anne-Marie Botek
5. Katie Dwelley (Stanford)
6. Presley Bard

400 Medley Relay

I truly want to see a great race in this event, and I don’t think I will be disappointed!  In all honesty, I am thinking that a record will be set in this event for the meet, and it will be a tight push for first between Auburn and Stanford!  But, everyone has to make the prediction so here goes:

1. Auburn
2. Stanford
3. Texas
4. Cal
5. Georgia
6. Florida

200 Medley Relay

I don’t expect to see anyone dethrone Arizona’s top seed in this event, but it definitely will be a close race for the top 6 spots!

1. Arizona
2. Georgia
3. Tennessee
4. Stanford
5. Virginia
6. Florida

400 IM

The iron-woman race!  Let’s face it, nobody is going to beat Julia Smit!  Seeded almost 6 seconds faster than the number two seed, she can basically shut off her engines for a first place finish.  However, I don’t think that she will do that, and I am hoping to see her break the 3:55 mark!

1. Julia Smit
2. Katinka Hosszu (So Cal)
3. Jana Mangimelli (Georgia)
4. Teresa Crippen (Florida)
5. Alicia Aemisegger (Princeton)
6. Elizabeth Smith (Stanford)

100 Butterfly

I am going to preface the following statement by saying that I truly think that Natalie Coughlin is one of the most prolific swimmers in our modern age!  However, records are meant to be broken, and I am pushing for a broken record in the 100 fly!  I am going to put my money on Stanford’s Elaine Breeden taking this event and breaking the 50.00 barrier, and that is without a suit!  Here are the full predictions:

1. Elaine Breeden
2. Kathleen Hersey (Texas)
3. Hannah Wilson (Cal)
4. Lyndsay DePaul (So Cal)
5. Ana Agy (Arizona)
6. Claire Donahue (Western Kentucky)

200 Freestyle

Let’s face it…Georgia will go 1 – 2 in this event with the battle between Morgan Scroggy and Allison Schmitt.  Kate Dwelley (Stanford) will try her hardest to take out at least one of the two Georgia swimmers, but I think it will be a bit too taxing for her and she’ll let the 3rd place finish slip as well.

1. Allison Schmitt
2. Morgan Scroggy
3. Lauren Perdue (Virginia)
4. Kate Dwelley
5. Shara Stafford (Florida)
6. Chelsea Nauta (Georgia)

100 Breaststroke

As a coach, I love watching breaststroke events because it truly brings out the difference in each individual swimmer.  Some have a low lying stroke with little undulation while others undulate significantly!  Each variation works for each individual swimmer, but (my ranting aside) here is how the field will play out:

1. Micah Lawrence (Auburn)
2. Ashley Danner (George Mason)
3. Alia Atkinson (A&M)
4. Jillian Tyler (Minnesota)
5. Samantha Maxwell (Notre Dame)
6. Ann Chandler (Arizona)

100 Backstroke

With Gemma Spofforth (Florida) seeded in first, the real race is going to be for the other top 8 spots!  Virginia’s Mei Christensen, So Cal’s Presley Bard, and Tennessee’s Jennifer Connolly will battle it out for 2 – 3 – 4 finishes!  Here is how I see it unfolding:

1. Gemma Spofforth
2. Presley Bard
3. Mei Christensen
4. Jennifer Connolly
5. Elizabeth Webb (Stanford)
6. Ana Agy (Arizona)

800 Freestyle Relay

The bottom line is that nobody is taking this event from Georgia!  They are way too stacked to let this event slip from their fingers, but the battle for second is going to be intense!  Now, I cannot see Stanford allowing another team to take second over them even though So Cal is seeded ahead.  So, here is how I see the dice rolling:

1. Georgia
2. Stanford
3. Cal
4. So Cal
5. A&M
6. Florida

1650 Freestyle

Georgia for a 1 – 2!  Both Chelsea Nauta and Wendy Trott will not be beat in this event which will actually make for an exciting event for the 3 – 8 finishes!

1. Wendy Trott
2. Chelsea Nauta
3. Alica Aemisegger (Princeton)
4. Ashley Steenvoorden (Minnesota)
5. Erika Hajnal (Virginia Tech)
6. Haley Anderson (So Cal)

200 Backstroke

Will taper work for Gemma Spofforth (Florida) in the 200 back?  That is the key question with this event!  Spofforth has shown, throughout the year, that she is a very tough competitor, but it is going to come down to more than that.  So, here is a quick glance at my top finishers:

1. Gemma Spofforth
2. Presley Bard (So Cal)
3. Kateryna Fesenko (Indiana)
4. Mei Christensen (Virginia)
5. Carly Smith (North Carolina)
6. Caitlin Iversen (Arizona)

100 Freestyle

Julia Smit (Stanford) is absolutely going to be challenged to hand on to that first place seed in this event!  With Auburn’s Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace seeded in third, and A&M’s Julia Wilkinson in second it is going to be close!  However, don’t forget about Shara Stafford (Florida) who will also be a contender in this race!

1. Julia Smit
2. Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace
3. Julia Wilkinson
4. Shara Stafford
5. Kate Dwelley (Stanford)
6. Karlee Bispo (Texas)

200 Breaststroke

As Stanford starts counting their points and minutes/hours from an NCAA victory, Elizabeth Smith will be stepping up to the block to try and earn more first place points for her team (Stanford).

1. Elizabeth Smith
2. Alia Atkinson (A&M)
3. Haley Spencer (Minnesota)
4. Jillian Tyler (Minnesota)
5. Ashley Danner (George Mason)
6. Susan Kim (Yale) – primarily because they are local and I like Yale…sorry

200 Butterfly

Elaine Breeden (Stanford) will look to win this event even though she is seeded in second behind Katinka Hosszu (So Cal), and Kathleen Hersey (Texas) will also be attempting an upset over Hosszu and Breeden.  Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Elaine Breeden
2. Kathleen Hersey
3. Katinka Hosszu
4. Sara Isakovic (Cal)
5. Lyndsay DePaul (So Cal)
6. Jemma Lowe (Florida)

400 Freestyle Relay

To wrap up the women’s portion of the NCAA Championships, we venture to the 400 free relay!  At this point in the meet, I am going to assume that Stanford has sealed the deal on their NCAA victory, and will be hyped up going into this event!  Georgia, on the other hand, will look to try and minimize the damage of second place by taking this home!

1. Georgia
2. Stanford
3. A&M
4. Cal
5. Florida
6. Auburn

I originally thought it would be a much closer meet between Georgia and Stanford.  However, after taking closer look and truly thinking about how each swimmer will place in their respective events, there is no way that Georgia is going to win the title this year (my apologies for the offense to the Georgia ladies), but it will be one heck of a fight!

Let us know your thoughts and opinions on the predictions in the comment section below!